Congress Game Plan

The top Congress leadership in New Delhi had given a go ahead for the formation of a Separate Telangana State which will bifurcate (or trifurcate) Andhra Pradesh state. Lot of politicians and Andhrites have accused the Congress of annr Founcing it suddenly without taking everyone into consideration. I discussed this in my previous post Politicians Ditching Telangana Again?.

When a party like Congress which is more than 100 years old takes a decision, they take that decision after due deliberations, getting reports from State Intelligence, Intelligence Bureau, etc. If we analyze the history of Congress party, they might have very very rarely taken back a decision.


The point here is our Future Prime Minister, Mr.Rahul Gandhi is all for smaller states. He has understood that smaller states only be easily developed than states that are bigger than more than 100 countries. That's one main reason why he was supporting a separate Bundelkhand state to be carved our of Uttar Pradesh. If they start directly with Bundelkhand, people would criticize that Congress is doing this only for the sake of Rahul Gandhi. That's one reason they wanted to start this process with a Congress rules state like Andhra Pradesh. Also, Uttar Pradesh has around 80 MP seats and Congress has very less number of MP seats from UP. So, if they trifurcate UP, it is an easy gain for Congress.

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Ms.Mayawati understood this clearly and she only came forward to trifurcate the state to snatch the points away from Congress.

Formation of Telangana is just like a pawn in the larger political game that Congress has just started. They are going to split lot of states where Congress is weaker.

It is better Andhra politicians understand this game plan and get used to living in a state whose capital is NOT Hyderabad !!

BJP Surges Ahead, Congress Losing Relevance

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) created history after it routed the Congress Party and the much hated Janata Dal(Secular) and form it's own Government in the state of Karnataka (South India) for the first time in its history.
The party won 111 seat out of 224 seats and thus falling short of 2 seats for a simple majority. The BJP would be taking help of the independent candidates who have won the elections.

It is a moment of triumph for the Saffron party as it won the elections on the development plank and also the negative vote JD(S) garnered. People came out in force to kick out the JD(S) and it's much hated boss and former Prime Minister, Hardanahalli Doddagowda Devegowda (HD Devegowda).
Many senior leaders lost this elections including the former chief minister of Karnataka, Bangarappa and his two sons and another former congress chief minister, Dharam Singh.


Except for South Karnataka where JD(S) fared well, BJP triumphed in the Mumbai-Karnatak region(bordering Maharashtra) and Hyderabad-Karnatak Region (bordering Andhra Pradesh).

B.S.Yeddyurappa belonging to the Lingayat Community would sworn in as the Chief Minister on 28th May 2008.

This is 16th loss for the Congress Party after it wrested power from BJP in the Center and they are making the same mistakes in every election they are contesting.

The Congress report card:

2004: Won: Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Maharashtra.
Lost: Karnataka, Orissa, Sikkim

2005: Won: Haryana.
Lost: Jharkhand, Bihar

2006: Won: Assam, Pondicherry: Congress retains power.
Lost: Bengal, Kerala In Tamil Nadu, the party is a minor ally of the winning DMK.

2007:: Won: Manipur, Goa
Lost: Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat

2008: Won: None
Lost: Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka

Here are list of Congress Party's failures:

Failure of Rahul Gandhi:
The Congress Party tried to project Rahul Gandhi (Rajiv & Sonia Gandhi's son) as Prime Minister in the making. But, where ever he went to campaign on behalf of Congress Party, the party is getting routed - a serious dent to the aspiring "Yuvraj".


Failure To Project Future Chief Minister:
Another area where Congress Party blundered is in naming their chief minister candidate. Since the day 1, BJP had named B.S.Yeddyurappa as their Chief Minister candidate thus nipping any infighting in the bud. Congress brought back former chief minister, S.M. Krishna from the post of Governor of Maharashtra but didnot project him as the chief minister so as not to distance the rural voters as Krishna is seen as a Urban oriented person. Other caste equations kept Congress from naming their chief minister candidate.

Sonia Gandhi did not learn any lesson from Gujarat and stubbornly refused to name a candidate to lead the party in Karnataka.
Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, L.K.Advani while campaigning for BJP projected this lack of a chief ministerial candidate of Congress party would pave way for BJP to form their Government and this prediction proved correct.

Failure to Recognize Regional Leaders:
Since the beginning, Congress Party has followed a rule that no regional leader can be equal to or more popular than the President of the party. Whenever they felt that one particular leader in the party is gaining popularity, the high command used to encourage another leader who is against the popular leader. So, this popular leader now has to concentrate his energies in retaining his post and that way, his popularity would wane. And so, no threat to the President of the party who is de-facto a "Gandhi". The BJP just did the opposite. L.K.Advani never felt bad in promoting regional leaders like Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Bhai Modi. Many a times Advani, gracefully shared stage with Modi in Gujarat where Modi is given more importance.

His one time protege draws more crowds these days than than him, but for Advani it is advantage BJP. He has handled Modi's popularity with a positive mindset. If any regional leader gains personal clout the Congress party does everything to cut him or her to size. Ask Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit.
The Congress high command failed miserably in understanding what the BJP was doing in Karnataka. The BJP's top leadership was led by state leaders' advice and not the other way round. Is this possible in the Congress party when decisions are only taken at Sonia Gandhi's home at 10, Janpath and not at 24, Akbar road or in Bangalore? I dont think so !!


Failure to Announce Candidates and Manifesto:
The BJP announced it's manifesto and the names of the contesting candidates atleast two weeks earlier than its rivals.
This gave a big boost to the candidates and they started the campaigning process earlier than other parties.
Moreover, the manifesto clearly defined the issues and the party also started the trend of releasing a separate plan for Bangalore and the rest of Karnataka. By doing so, they promised to address the problem of regional imbalance, especially in the northern part of Karnataka.

Caste Combinations:
The BJP played the caste combinations very skilfully when compared to their opponents.
The decision to field a combination of Lingayats, Vokkaligas and the Backwards Castes proved to be a successful mantra for the party.

B S Yeddyurappa was the mascot for the Lingayat community while D Sadananda Gowda, party president and R Ashok took care of the Vokkaliga votes. Eshwarappa and Katta Subramanya Naidu were given a prominent role to take care of the backward class votes.


All parties thought that the BJP would bank solely on Lingayat votes, but the party leadership decided not to tow this line and gave preference to all castes. A division of minority and Vokkaliga votes between Congress and the JD-S also helped the BJP to sail through.

Another mistake that other parties committed was to give too much emphasis to the candidature of B S Yeddyurappa. Both Congress and the JD(S) withdrew their candidates from Shikaripur to ensure that BJP's chief ministerial candidate, Yeddyurappa lost to former chief minister, Bangarappa. They felt the BJP would be defeated if Yeddyurappa lost. However, the ploy went in favour of Yeddyurappa as a section of the voters turned sympathetic to him and his party.

The map of India on the right shows the number of Congress ruled states and the number of BJP ruled states.
Looks like the tables are turning against the Congress Party as it is losing relevance in the Indian political scenario post the drubbing in Karnataka and other state assemble elections.

For the resurgent BJP, the most historic moment would be the 2009 General Elections when it would be looking forward to beat a demoralized Congress Party.

Development or Ideology

This was the dilemma that Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat had before he kick started his election campaign.

He was running for the office of Chief Minister for a record third time heading 55 Million Gujaratis. All his meetings, he was showcasing "Vibrant Gujarat" with all the developmental works he had done past 5 years.

He was elected with a record of 117 Members of Legislative Assemble (MLA's) out of a total of 182 seats. The Congress Party and its allies were halted at 62 seats.

Even though BJP lost 9 seats to its previous tally of 126 MLA's, the margin hardly mattered as the Congress was in a hopeless situation. While the BJP was celebrating, the leaders of Congress Party switched off the cell phones, shying away from the media.

This is another debacle (after been routed in Uttar Pradesh by Mayavati's BSP) for Congress Party and in particular to it's President, Sonia Gandhi as she tried once again to project her son, Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister -in-waiting.

Some of the achievements of Narendra Modi are:


* Value of farm output has grown four times during his reign.
* School drop-out rate was down to 3% from over 40%.
* All villages, without exception, were getting 24 hour, 3 phase power for homes.
* The pipelines and canals fetching Narmada water, more than 140,000 check-dams and village ponds across the state had solved the drinking-water and irrigation problems in a state that was perennially drought-prone, arid and dependent on water-tankers ferrying expensive water.
* The number of registered unemployed in Gujarat had actually declined by over 15%.
* Narendra Modi's individual charisma and clean image as a most uncorrupted politician became a huge advantage.
* To top it all, the past five years were riot-free, curfew-free, and despite being targeted by several terror groups from across the borders, terror-strike-free.

Modi's Cultist Image:

This election was all about Narendra Modi. None of the local issues were highlighted and this election looked like a referendum on Narendra Modi.

The English language media which hates Modi, had indirectly helped him by keeping him in the limelight in what it considered as highlighting Modi's misdeeds. As the thumping results show, it boomeranged on them.

Modi's personality of being a macho man with a 56 inch-size chest, a leader who toils for Gujarat, a politician who will get things done in New Delhi and the Hindutva hero who will keep Muslims under control - all these, each in its own way, has helped him win the votes of a majority of Gujaratis.

Gujaratis, who are entrepreneurial and hardworking loved their chief minister who would attend office from morning till late in the night. Also, his decision to sack one-third of the sitting MLA's proved advantageous. He thus overcame anti-incumbency factor in a big way.

Blunders by Opposition Congress Party:


* The Congress gave too much of importance and relied on the dissident Patel leaders in BJP. The public just shunned the dissident leaders and romped home the chief minister.
* Sonia in her very first day of the campaign, called those who ran Gujarat "merchants of fear and death". The Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh said a "reign of terror" existed in Gujarat and as if that wasn't enough, one of the party general secretaries, Digvijay Singh commented about "Hindu terrorists" in Gujarat.
* Bitter infighting in Congress resulted in no viable candidate to counter Modi's charm and charisma.
* Congress Party's personalized campaign against Modi boomeranged against them. They should have delved more on rise in prices !
* Congress was from the beginning, fighting for the sake of survival and existence instead of a strong opposition party.
* Being the head of the oldest party in India, Sonia Gandhi had stooped to the level of the Chief Minister of a state. Sonia has been a disappointment. Sonia Gandhi indirectly helped Modi increase his stature in the national politics.

Contrary to belief's, the Gujarat elections is not about Hindu Nationalism or Congress pseudo-secularism. But, it was a referendum on Modi's economic agenda which does not have a populist component.

While everyone was expecting a close call, the above statement by Sonia, which was over and over again stated by many of Congress leaders, had closed the elections in favour or Narendra Modi.

Modi, who was concentrating more on his developmental works had to shift focus towards defending Gujarati pride and Hinduism because of the idiotic planning of the Congress.

Congress handed over Gujarat to Modi !!